올 상반기 중 확정될 분당급 신도시는 강남수요를 분산시킬 수 있는 거리에 건설될 예정이라 물망에 오르고 있는 추가 신도시 예정부지에 대한 개발기대감이 상당한 편이다. 특히 이들 지역은 매수세가 급감하고 거래부진 상태가 유지되고 있는 수도권 일반 매매시장의 안정세와는 큰 대비를 이루고 있어, 저렴한 물량을 잡기 위해 선투자 하려는 수요자는 집을 보지 않고도 계약할 정도의 묻지마 매입 사례도 발생되고 있다. 일례로 6~7천만원하던 다세대/빌라가 1억~1억2천만원만원씩 급등하기도 했다. 즉, 작년 11.15대책 이후 두 달새 집값이 20~30% 가량 껑충 뛰어오르는 등, 이미 유력지로 알려지면서 이름값을 하고 있는지라, 리스크에 비해 가격부담은 큰 편인 셈이다.

이럴 땐, 노후한 지분투자 보다 실거주 병행을 염두에 둔 신규아파트나, 후광효과가 기대되는 분양물량을 노리는 것도 좋다. 현재 거론되고 있는 추가신도시 후보지로 경기도 광주 오포와 용인 모현면 일대, 과천과 안양사이, 하남시 일대가 인구에 회자되고 있는데, 부지마다 상수원보호구역이나 그린벨트 등의 규제를 받고 있어 어느 곳이 지정될지는 미지수인 상황이기 때문이다. 최종 낙점의 불확실성을 염두에 뒀을 때, 노후한 지분을 매입하는 것보다 실수요를 병행할 수 있는 곳이 낫기도 하다. 

▶ 신도시 예정부지들의 장단점과 분양예정물량
예상후보지로 얘기된 곳 중, 올해 가장 많은 분양물량이 쏟아질 곳은 광주시다. 총 8개 사업장 5207세대가 공급될 예정으로 수질오염총량관리제로 인해 인허가가 어려워 그동안 분양시기가 밀린 요인도 크다. 유력지인 오포읍 쪽은 분당서현동과 수내동에 접해 있어 분당생활권이 가능하고, 강남접근성이 뛰어나, 실수요자들의 관심이 많은 곳이다. 도로교통도 성남~장호원간 자동차 전용도로가 2009년 완공되면 분당/강남과 접근성이 더욱 좋아질 것이다. 특히, 광주시 전체는, 산세가 좋아 친환경 주거생활이 가능하고, 중부고속도로 외에도 제2외곽순환고속도로(건설예정), 성남(판교)~여주간 복선전철(2010년 완공)이 지어지고 있어, 분당/판교/강남 진출입이 상당히 편리해 질 전망이다. 정확한 분양시기는 유동적이지만, 분양물량 대부분이 상반기에 공급예정에 있는데, 송정동 우정건설(830세대), 태전동 우림건설(475세대)이 봄에 아파트를 출하하면, 메머드급인 탄벌동 경남기업(975세대)과 곤지암쪽 현진(390세대)이 곧이어 청약자를 맞을 계획이다.

안양과 과천일대는, 청계산과 관악산이 병풍처럼 둘러싸고 있는 그린벨트가 대부분이다. 400~500만평급으로는 부지가 작긴 하지만, 강남을 대체하는 주거지로 가장 근접한 거리에 있어 예상 후보지로 분석되고 있다. 특히, 서초구와 면하고 있는 주암동과 과천동 경마장주변은 과천선 경마장역이 있는 역세권이라는 점이 매력적이다. 그리고, 과천과 안양, 의왕시 사이의 갈현동과 문원동이 안양 관양지구와 의왕 포일지구 등과 함께 개발될 경우, 강남고급수요의 퇴로도 될 수 있다는 이점을 지녔다. 교통도 인근 과천~의왕간고속화도로로를 통해 우면이나 양재의 접근성도 좋은 편이다. 하지만, 과천청사 이전부지가 과천지식정보타운으로 개발될 계획이 있다는 점, 협소한 규모와 지형이 평탄치 않다는 문제점을 안고 있기는 하다. 인근에서 직접적인 수혜를 볼 분양물량은 많지 않다. 과천은 대부분 재건축규제와 맞물려있어 공급이 부진한 편이다. 다만, 과천 갈현동 인근 안양 비산동에서 성원건설이 주상복합 397세대, 신원종합개발이 158세대를 각각 뽑아낼 예정이다. 신도시 후보지보다 오히려 안양도심에 속하는 호계동에선 일신건영이 380세대를 준비 중이다.

하남시는 강동구, 송파구와 맞닿아 있고, 한강을 경계로 구리와 남양주시와 인접해 있어 신도시예정지로 주목받고 있다. 교통도 올림픽도로 및 국도 45호선과 연결되며 팔당대교의 완공으로 국도6호선과도 바로 연결돼 강남권과의 접근성도 뛰어난 편이다. 또 중부고속도로IC로 올림픽도로와의 연결성도 한결 나아질 전망이고 미지수긴 하지만, 장기적으론 하남경전철(상일동에서 하남창우동까지) 계획이 있기도 하다. 특히, 그린벨트가 90%를 상회하는 수도권 마지막 미개발지라는  희소성과 지구 외곽 이성산성~지구내 보존공원~한강수변 녹지 축을 연결하는 환경친화 주거타운이 가능하다는 매력이 있다. 현재, 기존시가지인 덕풍동과 신장동 일대의 도시․주거환경정비기본계획 재공람기간 중이니 곧 기본계획이 나오면 개발계획의 방향이 좀 더 정확해질 예정이기도 하다. 하지만, 방대한 그린벨트가 청정주거지를 만들어줄 수는 있겠으나, 전 지역이 그린벨트나 다름없다는 점은 신도시 최종낙점의 자승자박으로 작용 될 확률도 있다. 분양물량으로는 한라건설이 8월경 덕풍동에서 타운하우스 126세대를 공급할 예정이다. 한솔건설은 신장동 일대에서 토지작업 중이라 사업내용이 변경될 확률이 높다. 중앙건설은 덕풍동일대에서 33단일평형으로 약 470세대의 지역조합아파트를 준비 중이다.

▶ 신도시 예정부지들의 청약요령 및 주의점
가장 큰 주의점은 불확실성이다. 후보지 중 어디가 될지 모르기 때문에 잘못 청약(투자)했다가 돈이 장기간 묶일 수 있다. 특히, 재당첨금지와 민간택지의 분양가상한제, 원가공개 문제도 생각해보고 선택할 일이다. 작년 인천 검단같이 투기 광풍이 몰아쳤던 곳이 현재 급매가 나온다던가 매수세가 급감하고 있는 사례도 있으니, 상반기 신도시로 지정되더라도 실수요가 가능한지 잘 체크해 청약하는 것이 좋겠다.


▶ 분당급 신도시 예정부지 인근 2007년 분양예정 APT
========================================================================================================
                  위치                                      건설업체          단지        평형   일반  분양       문의(내선)
                                                                                      규모                 분양 예정월
========================================================================================================
광주시    광주시 송정동                               우정건설           830    20~40       830   3       02-2056-1021 
오포일대 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              광주시 태전동 1차                         우림건설           475    34~45       475   3       080-231-1000
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              광주시 송정동                               우림건설         약372    33,39   약372   4       080-231-1000
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              광주시 탄벌동 산556-1번지 외          경남기업(주)       975         33       671   5       02-2210-0500
                                                                                                     38       200
                                                                                                     46       104
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              광주시 실촌면 열미리(곤지암2차)       (주)현진           390    30~50       390   5       031-442-6380(직통)
                                                                                                                                031-463-0932(홍보팀)
                                                                                                                                031-463-0873
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              광주시 장지동 산45                        벽산건설           938    28~42       938   5       02-767-5101,5288
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              광주시 오포읍                               진흥기업           877    31~50       877   미정  02-772-1313
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              $광주시 경안동 38번지(삼정lartz)    삼정건설           350         34       350   미정  02-580-7616~7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
안양과    $안양시 비산동 554-12(1차)재건축    성원건설           219    29~33       140   2~3   02-3404-2113
과천사이  (25층)
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              $안양시 비산동 557-4(2차)               성원건설           178    27~50        40   상반기02-3404-2113
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              $안양시 비산동(32층전후)                신원종합개발       158    34~47       158   하반기02-3465-4200(1)
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              안양시 안양동                               청광건설           271    24~33        65   미정  02-3461-6395
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              안양시 호계동                               일신건영           380       미정       380   미정  02-480-3185
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
하남시    하남시 덕풍동(타운하우스)               한라건설           126   60~103       126   8       02-3434-5798,5114
일대       -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              &하남시 풍산지구 A3,A5블럭(국민임대)대한주택공사       731       미정       731   11    1588-9082
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              하남시 신장동                               한솔건설           252       미정       미정  하반기02-3287-7063,7075
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              하남시 신장동(토지작업중)               한솔건설          1838       미정       미정  하반기02-3287-7063,7075
           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              #하남시 덕풍동 602번지일대              중앙건설         약470         33       미정  미정  02-3271-8341
              (덕풍3동제1지역주택조합)
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$=주상복합,&=국민임대,#=지역조합
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